SHFE tin pulls back under high-pressure, ore supply shortage clashes with off-season demand [SMM tin midday review]

As of the midday session today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) was quoted at 267,520 yuan/mt, down 1.4% from the settlement price of the previous trading day. The intraday amplitude narrowed to ±1.76%, indicating sideways movement. LME three-month tin futures were quoted at $33,890/mt on the electronic platform, down 0.73% from the previous trading day, continuing the downward pressure on the LME market.

​​Trade Policy Tussle​​: As the August 1 deadline for US-EU tariffs approaches, the EU has adopted a 93 billion euro retaliatory plan. If negotiations break down, it could impact global supply chain sentiment. The outlook for China-US negotiations remains uncertain, heightening market risk aversion.

​​Liquidity Divergence​​: Domestic "anti-rat race" policies are driving capital back into the non-ferrous metals sector, but the stabilization and rebound of the US dollar index are suppressing the LME market. LME tin inventory has fallen to a new low for the year, creating a tug-of-war between squeeze risks and macro headwinds.

​​Capital Tussle​​: Industrial hedging positions are entering the market at highs to suppress prices, while institutional bulls are betting on the continuation of policy dividends, creating a "bull reduction and bear increase" pattern.

​​Short-term Outlook​​: Tin prices are trapped in a sideways movement between 265,000-275,000 yuan/mt. A weak balance has formed between mine supply shortages and the off-season demand, with macro events potentially becoming the key to breaking the deadlock.